比特幣種類有哪些(比特幣適用于哪些交易?)

譯者 王為

文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者注釋或補充說明

When it MakesSense to Transact in Bitcoin

By Peter St Onge

The value of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, just like any other kind of money, comes fundamentally from what you can do with it. As a follow up to What Backs Bitcoin, I want to dig into that value.

像其他所有貨幣一樣,比特幣之類的虛擬貨幣最根本的價值來自于人們能用它來做什么。接前文“比特幣的價值從何而來?”，今天要探討的是比特幣的價值體現在什么地方。

The idea, which comes from Austrian economist Carl Menger, is that just as a shovel’s value comes from its ability to dig, a currency’s value comes from its ability to help you do two things: transactions, and savings.

奧地利經濟學家Carl Menger認為，就像一把鏟子的價值來自于能挖地，一種貨幣的價值來自于該貨幣能幫助人們完成兩件事：交易支付和儲蓄，即發揮支付手段和儲藏手段的職能。

Think of transactions as the money you carry in your wallet or checking account, and savings as the rest of what you have in the bank or buried in the yard. It’s worth mentioning here that that vast majority of money demand is indeed savings, making up 90% or more of all money demand.

這么想吧，交易支付就是錢包里或支票帳戶中隨時準備支付出去的錢，儲蓄就是銀行帳戶中沒動用的或埋在后院里的錢。這里要重點說明一下，絕大部分的貨幣需求其實是來自儲蓄，儲蓄占了全部貨幣需求中的九成甚至更高。

The reason this matters is because if we know what transactions cryptocurrencies are good at, we can estimate how much money demand they’ll start pulling from fiat or gold, and therefore how much those cryptos will increase in price.

為啥說這一點很重要，因為如果知道虛擬貨幣適用于何種交易，就能估算出來有多少貨幣需求正在脫離法定貨幣體系或黃金，進而搞清楚虛擬貨幣的價格會漲到什么程度。

For transactions, some features that matter are cost and speed of transaction, anonymity, reversibility, counter-party risk, regulatory treatment. For savings demand, those factors are overwhelmed by the specific question of how well the currency keeps its price.

在交易需求方面，一個貨幣是否具有交易成本低、交易速度快、匿名性、可逆性、交易對手風險以及合規要求等特性是至關重要的。對于儲蓄需求來講，更重要的是該貨幣是否能夠保值。

Supply and demand determine price — Always

供求關系決定價格是顛撲不破的真理

Price, as always in economics, is simply a matter of demand and supply. When demand is rising faster than supply, the currency will go up in price. And if demand is rising slower than supply, price will go down.

在經濟學中，價格永遠都只是供求關系的產物。當需求增長的速度快于供給，貨幣價值上漲；如果需求增長的速度慢于供給，貨幣價值下降。

Since bitcoin was born in 2009, it has generally enjoyed demand rising much faster than supply, hence price has soared. While the US dollar, say, has gone down — has “price inflated” — because demand failed to keep up with dollar creation.

自2009年比特幣橫空出世以來，對比特幣的需求總是超過比特幣的供給，因此比特幣的價格一路飆升。而美元的價值則在一路下跌，即“價值充水”了，因為對美元的需求趕不上美元發行的速度。

Those are the features, now what are the applications: what are people using money for?

以上談的都是貨幣的特性，下面來談談貨幣的應用：貨幣能用來干啥？

When we’re looking at a currency’s price, because we’re looking at total demand we don’t care about the number of transactions rather the total amount transacted.

在探討貨幣價值的時候，由于我們關注的是對貨幣的總需求，故只看交易的總金額，而不管交易的筆數。

And here, the vast majority of money moving around in the economy is not goods and services — buying a cup of coffee, or a plane ticket — rather financial movements. Paying salaries, buying and selling stocks or bonds, investments and dividends. These occur mostly by bank transfer, which account for 80% of all money moved in the US. Another 15% goes by check, leaving just 3% for credit or debit cards, and 4% for paper cash.

但是，實體經濟中絕大多數的流通貨幣并不是用于購買商品和服務，比如買咖啡或買飛機票，而是用于與金融有關的交易。支付薪水，買賣股票或債券，用于投資和分紅等。這些交易大多通過銀行賬戶轉帳來完成，美國全部流通貨幣中的80%走的是銀行轉帳，還有15%通過支票轉帳，只有3%用信用卡結算，還有4%用現金完成。

Bitcoin still under 0.01% of global transactions

比特幣占全球支付交易的比率尚不足0.01%

A final part of the puzzle, what’s the competition to cryptocurrencies? Most money payments worldwide are, of course, denominated in fiat currency like dollars or yen — about 99% by amount. With the remaining 1% made in gold.

來揭開最后一個謎底，虛擬貨幣面臨的挑戰是什么？全球支付交易中的絕大部分當然還是通過美元或日元這樣的法定貨幣完成的，比率大約是99%，剩下1%是用黃金進行結算。

Note that fiat has both physical and electronic forms, such as credit cards and bank transfers. Even gold payments can be made with paper rather than physically moving the gold, including gold-based securities that trade in financial markets (so-called “paper gold”).

要強調的是法定貨幣的存在方式包括實體貨幣和電子貨幣，電子貨幣包括信用卡和銀行帳戶轉帳。即使是黃金的支付也可以通過紙面方式進行而不必交割黃金實物，其中也包括在金融市場中掛牌交易的以黃金為標的物的證券，如所謂的“紙黃金”。

Now we’re ready to go through those features for each currency. On cost and speed of transaction, bitcoin’s fees nowadays average about $1, and don’t vary by amount you transfer.

下面來比較一下每一種貨幣的各種特性。在支付交易的費用和速率方面，當前每筆比特幣支付交易的平均成本約折合1美元，這個成本是固定的，不會因為某些交易單筆金額很大就上調。

You can send 1 bitcoin, worth $5,000, or 1,000 bitcoins, worth $5 million, and the fees are still a dollar. In contrast, banks typically charge a percentage of the transaction, which adds up on million-dollar transfers. Meanwhile, on speed bitcoin is much faster than banks; between 10 minutes and an hour to confirm a transaction, while banks take days.

不管轉帳1個比特幣，價值5,000美元；還是轉帳1000個比特幣，價值5,000,000美元，單筆轉帳成本都是1美元。與此相反的是，銀行通常會根據每筆轉賬金額的大小收取一定比率的轉賬手續費，如單筆轉帳金額達到1,000,000美元，費率還要提高。還有就是，比特幣轉帳的速度比銀行轉賬快得多，少則10分鐘最多1小時就可以確認交易是否完成，而銀行則需要數日。

So bitcoin beats on the most important application of money: financial transfers. The one caveat here is exchange costs. Just as you pay fees and spreads when you exchange your dollars for yen, every time you convert dollars into bitcoin you’ve got to pay fees and spreads.

因此，比特幣在最主要的貨幣應用場景——金融轉帳支付中脫穎而出。來個友情提示：兌換成本。就像把美元換成日元需要承擔交易手續費和外匯買賣點差一樣，任何一筆把美元換成比特幣的交易也需要支付交易手續費和買賣點差。

This means that bitcoin’s low fees only really dominate if both the sender and receiver are keeping the money in bitcoin.

這就意味著，比特幣轉帳的低成本優勢只有當轉帳的發起方和接受方均接受比特幣的情況下才能充分發揮出來。

Bitcoin’s exchange rate woes

比特幣的兌換成本是個難題

On the other hand, if you have a bunch of dollars and want to buy a house from somebody who likes to keep dollars in the bank, then you’ll have to convert your dollars into bitcoin, send the bitcoin for a buck, then the other guy converts the bitcoins into dollars again. You saved on the transfer itself, but you had to exchange the money twice.

但另一方面，假設你攥著一把美元想從某人手里買一棟房子，而賣家打算把賣房款以美元形式存在銀行里，如果你選擇用比特幣作為轉帳的貨幣，這就涉及到美元和比特幣之間的兌換了，你得先把美元換成比特幣，再花一個美元的成本把比特幣轉帳給房屋的賣家，原房主把收到的比特幣再換成美元。相對于直接用美元轉帳的成本，比特幣的轉帳成本是節省了一些，但在交易的全過程中需要進行兩次兌換。

So, bitcoin as a technology is superior for the main type of transaction by value, but in reality that advantage is eroded if people are keeping their wealth in fiat. This isn’t really a flaw of cryptocurrencies per se, it’s just a standard penalty suffered by any minority currency — having to pay for conversion into the dominant currency.

因此，技術層面上比特幣是比主流的轉帳交易方式更具優勢，但在實際操作中，如果人們還是愿意將資產和財富以法定貨幣的形式保存起來，比特幣的技術優勢就大大削弱了。這個缺陷確實不是虛擬貨幣本身造成的，而是任何一種非主流的貨幣都逃不掉的宿命，為了將非主流貨幣轉換成具有主流地位的貨幣而不得不“上貢”。

To finish up on cost and speed, obviously physical cash or physical gold are fantastic on both cost and speed, but only if buyer and seller are touching each other. Given paper cash has only a 4% share today, touchable buyers and sellers is a very small part of demand.

就支付交易的成本和速度而言，顯然使用現金或實物黃金成本更低也更便捷，但這種方式只有在交易雙方能直接接觸的情況下才能采用。當今紙幣交易量只占全球支付結算總量的4%，因此能夠面對面直接接觸的買賣雙方所貢獻的貨幣需求是相當有限的。

For remote orders, then, bitcoin carries lower fees than credit and debit cards, but again with that double-exchange problem unless both buyer and seller are staying in bitcoin.

對于交易對手互不接觸的遠距離支付交易來講，比特幣的支付結算成本要低于信用卡和借記卡，但還是會遇到雙重兌換的問題，除非交易對手雙邊都愿意直接接受比特幣。

Bitcoin’s potential to outperform

比特幣有望超越傳統貨幣的地方

Next up are some secondary benefits: anonymity, reversibility, counter-party risk, regulatory treatment.

下面要談的貨幣特性相較以上就沒那么重要了，比如交易的匿名性，可逆性，交易對手風險和合規要求。

Briefly, bitcoin is nearly anonymous unless the US government cares enough about you to put some serious people on you. In this sense it’s essentially like using cash, but with the advantage you can use it over long distances with those low fees.

簡單的講就是，比特幣的交易和結算近乎完全匿名的，除非你因為啥事被美國政府盯上了，那你不管干什么都逃不掉山姆大叔的暗中凝視。從匿名性的角度出發，使用比特幣實際上與用現金沒啥區別，但好處是用比特幣可以低成本地與無法謀面的對手進行支付交易。

In practice, the closest alternative is probably a pre-paid debit card that you buy at 7/11, which can cost several dollars in addition to the merchant fees, and isn’t going to work for large amounts nor overseas.

實際操作中，與比特幣最相近的應該是在7/11之類連鎖便利店出售的預付費借記卡，用來結算的話一般需要在結算手續費之外再多花幾個美元，且沒法用于單筆金額非常大的交易或者與海外交易對手之間的交易。

As for reversibility, the question is whether the buyer can cancel his payment. A problem for online vendors who get scammed by people who buy the product, get it in the mail, cancel the order and keep the goodies.

至于交易的可逆性，關鍵在于買家是否可以取消付款，對于在線商家來講這是個問題，比如有人先下單，收到商家寄出的商品后再取消訂單，東西卻不退了。

Credit card companies or Paypal famously always side with the customer, which can suck for the honest vendor getting ripped off online. Bitcoin, again like cash, is irreversible once it’s confirmed — so about 10 minutes to an hour. That’s slower than cash, but faster than Paypal or credit cards where buyers can reverse months later.

信用卡公司或者Paypal素以袒護自家客戶而“聞名遐邇”，總是偏向自家客戶從老實的在線商家那里揩油。比特幣又一次展示出了與現金相似的一面，以比特幣為媒介的支付交易一般耗時10分鐘至1小時之間，一旦落地就無法逆轉。結算時長雖然超過現金交易，但比Paypal或信用卡快，后兩種結算方式都可以讓買家在幾個月后反悔。

Fourth characteristic is counter-party risk; the idea that your bank could go under, taking your money with it. Remember bitcoin was invented in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, where bank failures were common.

第四個特性就是交易對手風險，也就是你的開戶行一旦玩完，你的錢就沒了。別忘了比特幣誕生于2008年金融危機之后，那會兒銀行倒閉可是家常便飯。

Because bitcoin is distributed across many computers and isn’t managed by a central organization, it has no single point of failure. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies do still have potential technical glitches that probably more than make up for that risk.

由于比特幣的分發是通過很多計算機一起完成的，沒有一個中心組織掌控全局，也就沒有一點陷落全局俱損的可能了。但另一方面，虛擬貨幣也確實有可能遭遇技術故障導致這一優勢變得毫無意義。

Regulation: not if but when

監管不是有沒有的問題而是何時到來的問題

Finally, regulatory treatment. This is where we’ll probably see a lot of change over the next couple years, as governments digest cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

最后是監管。未來幾年，隨著政府對比特幣等虛擬貨幣的了解逐漸加深，對比特幣的監管會出現重大變化。

So far cryptos have enjoyed mostly benign neglect from regulators; tolerated, neither discouraged nor encouraged. On the bright side this has meant little regulatory burdens or fees, although this is changing in places like New York.

到目前為止，在監管當局既不鼓勵也不反對而是容忍的適度放任之下，比特幣的小日子過得挺滋潤。從好的方面來說，比特幣交易的監管成本幾乎可忽略不計，盡管在紐約等地這種情況開始有所改變。

On the down-side, this regulatory grey-zone has meant a lot of companies and institutional investors are afraid to use, or even to buy, bitcoin. So increasing regulations could actually boost bitcoin demand, as those regulated users become unafraid to play.

不好的方面，這種監管的灰色地帶也導致很多企業和機構投資者不敢使用比特幣甚至不敢買比特幣。因此，監管力度的加強也有可能促進對比特幣的需求，因那些受監管的用戶可以毫無顧慮地參與其中。

As for what happens in the future, countries are gradually drifting into 2 camps: broadly enthusiastic (Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, Switzerland), broadly skeptical (China, Korea), with the USA and European Union still lurching between the camps.

至于未來會發生什么，各國會逐漸分成兩個陣營：日本、迪拜、臺灣、瑞士會伸開雙臂擁抱比特幣，中國、韓國會拒之門外，美國和歐盟仍舉棋不定。

Crypto’s: only for adrenaline junkies

虛擬貨幣只是冒險者的樂園

Now, given how much savings dominate money use, the elephant in the room is would you feel comfortable keeping your life savings in bitcoin.

鑒于在貨幣使用需求中有極高的占比來自存款，有個問題需要挑明了問：如果換作是你，你會把一生的積蓄都放在比特幣里面嗎？

As we mentioned, the key point here is how it’s price will hold up, meaning will demand grow faster than supply. While bitcoin has knocked the socks off dollars or even gold, rising 800% in the past year alone, even this soaring growth has come with the major downside that bitcoin also fluctuates a lot — easily up or down 50% in a month.

前面提到，很關鍵的一點在于一個貨幣的價格能否穩步上揚，也就是對該貨幣的需求大于供給。說到價格上揚，美元甚至黃金也比不上比特幣，僅去年一年比特幣的價格就上漲了800%，雖然行情暴漲的同時也不乏大幅調整，比特幣的價格在一個月以內漲跌50%均易如反掌。

This makes it a terrible savings vehicle for the rich people and institutions that matter in savings demand, even if it also makes bitcoin such an exciting speculative investment. For now I certainly wouldn’t put more than 10% or 20% of a portfolio in cryptocurrencies, given that volatility.

對于富人和機構等對存款需求頗為在意的投資者來說，大漲大跌導致比特幣不適合用來存款，盡管這個特點讓比特幣成為了瘋狂投機的標的。如果是我的話，我現在肯定不敢把超過全部身家的一成或兩成放在比特幣身上，那波動率也太酸爽了。

Ok, my goal here was to give an overview of where a cryptocurrency shines — what kinds of transaction it’s good for, which ones it’s not, and how those impact its price.

結尾，本文的宗旨是總結一下比特幣最能發揮作用的場合，比如哪些交易場景適合，哪些不適合以及比特幣的價格如何受到這些因素的影響。